Monitoring Pandemic Policies and Trends to Determine Timing for Return to Workplace
In our introduction to our Return to Workplace Framework, we emphasize the importance of monitoring trends in case numbers. To do so, organizations should designate a safety monitor who will be responsible for conducting daily reopening assessments.
Because the status of the pandemic is dynamic, employers must track the outbreak in their community very closely as current pandemic trends are a key indicator of the timing of a return to the workplace. Even after employees return to the worksite, it will be necessary to continue to monitor local pandemic trends so that policies can be altered as needed to quickly respond to new surges of disease in communities. Increases in cases may require the implementation of more stringent policies or additional closures of the worksite.
The strategies outlined in this post can help business leaders monitor current local conditions so they can make the best decisions for the safety of their employees on a day-to-day basis. For more detailed guidance tailored to your business, please get in touch.
Designate a Team Member Responsible for Conducting Daily Reopening Assessments
As the organization builds their COVID-19 Task Force, they should ensure one team member is made accountable for conducting daily reopening assessments.
This person should monitor daily case count trends at the local and state level on a daily basis (using a seven-day rolling average). We suggest assessing all of the counties where the business is physically located, as well as the counties where about 5-10% or more employees reside. This individual should also pay attention to trends at the state level and for adjacent counties, as they can signal potential for upticks in cases in the coming days or weeks. The CDC currently reports on county-level pandemic trends using COVID-19 Community Levels, which take into account hospital capacity and total number of new COVID-19 cases in an area. This information can inform if a return to work is appropriate in addition to the (re)introduction of policies like mask wearing and social distancing.
Monitor Public Health Policies Regarding Business Reopening and Mandatory Community Mitigation Measures
As part of this process, this person should first keep a pulse on reopening policies at the state and local level. As cases increase in communities, it is more likely that public health officials will issue orders for mandatory mask-wearing, closure of some non-essential businesses, and other protective policies.
Refer to this directory to find the website for your local public health agencies. State public health department websites can be found here.
Monitoring Pandemic Trend: Identify Reliable Sources of Case Counts
To ensure timely and accurate information to inform reopening planning, business leaders must find credible sources of local, state, and national information that can be referenced and monitored on a daily basis.
The person in charge of conducting Daily Reopening Assessments should bookmark these sources and return to them each day to gather the necessary information and proceed (or change course) accordingly. There are several resources that track pandemic cases by county, and each have slightly different methodologies and reporting cadence. For consistency, select one source and use that same source daily. The aim of this assessment is to identify pandemic trends in the counties where the business (and most of the employees) are located, to track trends over time and inform the timing of reopening workplaces.
Monitor Case Count to Assess Reopening Timing
To identify trends and assess the timing for reopening a business, assessors should monitor trends in new confirmed cases each day. New confirmed cases are a direct measure of how quickly the disease is spreading or declining in a specific community. These trends are usually available at the county level.
To determine the trend of new cases, assessors should track new cases in the county and surrounding counties over a seven day period. Because assessors should monitor the county the business is in and the counties employees commute from, the first step is determining which counties the majority of a business’s workforce resides in. Once the assessor has determined which counties need monitoring, they should find a data source that reports on new cases in those counties. For the sake of consistency, assessors should utilize a single data source rather than compiling data from multiple sources.
Each day, the assessor should visit their data source and record the new daily cases per 100k for the counties they have chosen to monitor. Re-entry to the workplace should be determined by the pattern of disease in the community (the Pandemic Trend). Widespread or growing outbreaks should deter organisations from returning to the workplace due to the chance of a sick person coming into contact with others being much higher. Keeping up to date on pandemic trend will empower business leaders to make informed decisions about the timing of a return to workplace.
Websites and other sources that provide updates on the daily status of the pandemic at the county level can include:
Local health departments (see here for a directory)